{"id":146021,"date":"2022-06-02T10:39:00","date_gmt":"2022-06-02T09:39:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radioljubuski.ba\/?p=146021"},"modified":"2022-06-02T10:39:00","modified_gmt":"2022-06-02T09:39:00","slug":"dramatican-istup-sefa-jp-morgana-nesto-dolazi-ne-znam-je-li-to-malo-nevrijeme-ili-superoluja","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radioljubuski.ba\/index.php\/2022\/06\/02\/dramatican-istup-sefa-jp-morgana-nesto-dolazi-ne-znam-je-li-to-malo-nevrijeme-ili-superoluja\/","title":{"rendered":"Dramati\u010dan istup \u0161efa JP Morgana: Ne\u0161to dolazi. Ne znam je li to malo nevrijeme ili superoluja"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Me\u0111u velikim igra\u010dima globalnog biznisa te\u017ei\u0161te rasprave sve se vi\u0161e prebacuje s inflacije na recesiju. Potpuno je o\u010digledno da je inflacija tu, da se dobro usidrila, te se sada otvara pitanje sti\u017ee li nam uz nju zbog razli\u010ditih faktora i ekonomska kriza. Kod novog prognoziranja recesije ne radi se o analizama ili izjavama uvijek skepti\u010dnih ekonomista ili komentatora koji kao da zazivaju ekonomske nevolje, nego o stavovima ljudi kojima zbog poslova puno vi\u0161e odgovaraju optimisti\u010dni scenariji, ali moraju biti realisti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Samo tijekom srijede dva su krupna imena u korporativnom svijetu najavila mogu\u0107u recesiju. Prvi je velika zvijezda planetarnih financija, glavni izvr\u0161ni direktor JPMorgan Chasea Jamie Dimon, a druga je Dawn Fitzpatrick, superuspje\u0161na fond-menad\u017eerica koji sada upravlja s bogatstvom Georga Sorosa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Treba obratiti pa\u017enju da osobe koje upravo najavljuju recesiju nisu ekonomisti institucija i kompanija, kojima je posao neprekidno prognozirati razli\u010dite ishode, nego ljudi koji temeljem procjena donose investicijske odluke za svoje kompanije i klijente te\u0161ke stotine milijardi dolara te se stoga kad oni najavljuju krizu nipo\u0161to ne radi o zanimljivom spekuliranju uz kavu, nego o informacijama koje vrijedi akceptirati za bolje orijentiranje, pi\u0161e Jutarnji list.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

‘Uragan je tu dolje uz put i sti\u017ee u na\u0161em smjeru, poru\u010dio je Dimon te pojasnio kako ‘ne znamo radi li se o malom nevremenu ili superoluji. Ali je bolje da se pripremite.’ Dimon je prvenstveno govorio o stanju ameri\u010dke ekonomije, nad kojoj su se nadvili oblaci te je u ‘meteorolo\u0161kom’ \u017eargonu nastavio: ‘Trenuta\u010dno je kao sun\u010dano, stvari se odvijaju dobro, svi misle kako Fed mo\u017ee srediti (inflaciju, op.a.)’, upozorio je Dimon, nakon \u010dega su dionice JPMorgana izgubile na vrijednosti 1,8 posto (ukupno u ovoj godini 18 posto). Intrigantno je da \u010dak niti ekonomisti JPMorgana u svojim slu\u017ebenim projekcijama jo\u0161 nisu najavili recesiju, nego su samo smanjili procjene rasta u 2022. s 3 na 2,4 posto, a u 2023. s 1,4 na 1 posto. Pa ipak Dimon je rekao kako se pripremaju za turbulencije s konzervativnom strukturom bilance jer moraju ‘za\u0161titi sami sebe od rizika kako bi mogli slu\u017eiti klijentima u te\u0161kim vremenima’.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fitzpatrick je pak upozorila na niz faktora koji bi mogli voditi prema recesiji tako\u0111er u Sjedinjenim Dr\u017eavama, ali se nije \u017eeljela izjasniti o vremenskom horizontu kada \u0107e se to\u010dno recesija dogoditi. Tvrdi da je to te\u0161ko, ako ne i nemogu\u0107e predvidjeti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

‘Ako gledati cijene na tr\u017ei\u0161tima, tr\u017ei\u0161ta je prema tim cijenama (recesiju, op.a.) o\u010dekuju ubrzo, u kontekstu 2023., ovisno o vrsti imovine koju gledate.’<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I Dimon i Fitzpatrick smatraju kako ameri\u010dka potro\u0161nja i nagomilane u\u0161te\u0111evine tijekom pandemije mogu amortizirati recesijski udar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S takvom procjenom sla\u017ee se vi\u0161e uglednih ekonomista, poput Jasona Furmana s Harvarda, koji govori kako \u0107e snaga ameri\u010dkih potro\u0161a\u010da \u010diniti razliku izme\u0111u umjerene i te\u0161ke recesije. Analiti\u010dari Goldman Sachsa pak ocjenjuju kako bi u Sjedinjenim Dr\u017eavama i zbog gomilanja u\u0161te\u0111evina tijekom pandemije i sna\u017enog privatnog sektora mogli izbje\u0107i ozbiljnu recesiju.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na\u017ealost, ovi optimisti\u010dni pogledi na mogu\u0107u krizu u Sjedinjenim Dr\u017eavama te\u0161ko mogu vrijediti za stari kontinent. Iako Sjedinjene Dr\u017eave i EU dijele sli\u010dne probleme s robusnom inflacijom, ekonomske perspektive vrlo su razli\u010dite, kao i uzroci inflatornog trenda. Razliku u problemima Sjedinjenih Dr\u017eava i EU u ju\u010dera\u0161njoj je analizi opisao analiti\u010dar financijskih tr\u017ei\u0161ta Robert Armstrong. Razlo\u017eio je zbog \u010dega EU trpi sli\u010dnu inflaciju kao SAD, iako nije imala tako izda\u0161ne stimulanse kao Amerika:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

‘Najve\u0107a razlike su zaposlenosti i nadnicama. Napeto ameri\u010dko tr\u017ei\u0161te rada (uz vi\u0161ak u\u0161te\u0111evina) podr\u017eavaju visoku potra\u017enju. U Europi nije tako; tamo se potro\u0161nja ku\u0107anstava u klju\u010dnim ekonomijama eurozone nije oporavila od pandemije\u2026 Ukupni odra\u0111eni radni sati ispod su pretpandemijske razine, \u0161to ukazuje na slabo tr\u017ei\u0161te rada. A nadnice jo\u0161 nisu veliki dio europske inflacijske pri\u010de. Sumirano, \u0161ira slika ukazuje na inflaciju izazvanu potra\u017enjom u Sjedinjenim Dr\u017eavama, a tro\u0161kovima u Europi’.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pri tome je klju\u010dni zaklju\u010dak Armstronga kako ESB mora ne\u0161to u\u010diniti u zaustavljanju rasta cijena, koje prvenstveno generira rast cijene energije, jer do sada nije u\u010dinila ni\u0161ta, ali to ne zna\u010di zna\u010dajnu promjenu europskih perspektiva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

‘Rastu\u0107i tro\u0161kovi energije i hrane zna\u010de da Europa ide prema ozbiljnom usporavanju, ako ne recesiji. Koliko \u0107e biti duboka i duga\u010dka je nepoznato. Ali ulazak centralne banke u to usporavanje mo\u017ee biti dobra vijest za europsku rizi\u010dnu imovinu’, poru\u010dio je Armstrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukratko: Inflaciju ve\u0107 imamo u EU, sada bi uz nju mogli imati i recesiju. EU trpi puno sna\u017enije ekonomske udarce nego SAD zbog sukoba u Ukrajini i geopoliti\u010dke krize, a nema tako sna\u017ene potro\u0161a\u010de.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ispod je tweet uglednog Tomasa Hirsta koji upozorava na europski problem s potro\u0161a\u010dima.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"8-2022-06-02-09-44-58-24981415.png\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"8-2022-06-02-09-44-58-24981415.png\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Izvor:jutarnji.hr<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Me\u0111u velikim igra\u010dima globalnog biznisa te\u017ei\u0161te rasprave sve se vi\u0161e prebacuje s inflacije na recesiju. Potpuno je o\u010digledno da je inflacija tu, da se dobro usidrila, te se sada otvara pitanje sti\u017ee li nam uz nju zbog razli\u010ditih faktora i ekonomska kriza. Kod novog prognoziranja recesije ne radi se o analizama ili izjavama uvijek skepti\u010dnih […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":61249,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-146021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bihiregija"],"yoast_head":"\nDramati\u010dan istup \u0161efa JP Morgana: Ne\u0161to dolazi. 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