{"id":41981,"date":"2021-07-13T08:22:33","date_gmt":"2021-07-13T07:22:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radioljubuski.ba\/?p=41981"},"modified":"2021-07-13T08:22:34","modified_gmt":"2021-07-13T07:22:34","slug":"ekonomija-iscasene-ruke","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radioljubuski.ba\/index.php\/2021\/07\/13\/ekonomija-iscasene-ruke\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomija “i\u0161\u010da\u0161ene” ruke"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Nakon pada Berlinskog zida zemlje centralne Europe i Balti\u010dke zemlje uspjele su  tijekom jedne generacije okon\u010dati tranziciju komandnog dru\u0161tva i ekonomije u demokraciju i tr\u017ei\u0161nu ekonomiju. Istodobno su postale \u010dlanice EU i \u010dlanice kluba uglavnom bogatih zemalja tj. OECD-ea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Preostalo je svega nekoliko tranzicijskih ponavlja\u010da, i to u isto\u010dnoj  Europi (Ukrajina, Bjelorusija i Moldova) te na Balkanu (BiH, Srbija, Crna Gora, Kosovo, Albanija, S. Makedonija i Bugarska), nesposobnih diplomirati iz tranzicije ipostati zemljama visokog dohotka. Lako imje bilo postati zemljama srednjeg dohotka, imitiraju\u0107i one ispred tj. provoditi industrijalizaciju i urbanizaciju, no put do zemlje visokog dohotka je slo\u017eeniji.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pored imitacije, nu\u017ene su i invencije i inovacije. Dok su zemlje (i njene firme) duboko ispod granice proizvodnih mogu\u0107nosti, mogu se pribli\u017eavati granici do neke ta\u010dke, no nakon nje (ta\u010dke srednjeg dohotka),nu\u017ene su inovacije i invencije za daljnje pribli\u017eavanje granici.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Klju\u010d postajanja zemljom visokog dohotka nije u prirodnom bogatstvu nego u glavama ljudi. Nu\u017ena je inovativnost u stvaranju tehnologije i kreativnost u stvaranju kulture. Ko se u doba virtualnog kapitalizma, kad bruto doma\u0107i proizvod (BDP) postaje sve lak\u0161i, uzda u prirodne resurse i nisko pla\u0107ene radnike, osu\u0111en je na propast. Zemlje na vi\u0161em stupnjurazvoja ne konkuriraju proizvodima nego mozgovima. Obuke i obrazovanja od temeljne su va\u017enosti za u\u010de\u0107e firme, institucije i dru\u0161tvo, za pove\u0107anje produktivnost i konkurentnost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Invencija je pretvaranje novca u znanje, a inovacija pretvaranje znanja u novac. Niska produktivnost bh. ekonomije najvi\u0161e se ogleda u bezidejnosti, koja proisti\u010de iz nepostojanju tr\u017ei\u0161ne prinude da se stvaraju komercijalni izumi. Nema ulaganja u istra\u017eivanja i razvoj, nema istra\u017eiva\u010da ni istra\u017eiva\u010dkih instituta. Slika industrijskog dru\u0161tva su tvornice povezane cestama, a postindustrijskog istra\u017eiva\u010dki instituti povezani internetom. Umjesto da ide k 4.0 BiH ide prema -2.0 kako pokazuju brojne zombi firmi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Barem 20 afri\u010dkih zemalja ima svemirske programe, od kojih je pet ve\u0107 lansiralo satelite. Prvi satelit su napravili postdiplomci Sveu\u010dili\u0161ta  Stellenbosch prije 22 godine. Prvi snimci nu\u017eni za reagiranje na posljedica uragana Katrina koji je pogodio SAD 2005. god. nisu do\u0161lo od NASA-e nego odnigerijskog satelita. Lak\u0161e je platiti preko mobitela taksi u Najrobiju nego u New Yorku ili izvr\u0161iti nov\u010dani transfer iz Kenije no iz bilo koje druge zemlje, kako stoji u tekstu \u201eThe Economist explains: <\/strong>Why does Kenya lead the world in mobile money?\u201c iz 2015. god.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Glede ekonomske politike, BiH ima jednu ruku zavezanu, a drugu i\u0161\u010da\u0161enu. Zbog currency boarda odrekla se monetarne politike i politike deviznog kursa tj. vezala ruku. Kad ekonomija ima fiksni devizni te\u010daj i k tomu jo\u0161 currency board, monetarna politika mo\u017ee tek pasivno odra\u017eati kretanja u EU \u2013 isti rezultat koji ko\u0161ta znatno manje Crnogorce i Kosovare. Tako je ekonomska politika svedena na fiskalnu politiku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Za razliku od ekonomije \u2018nevidljive ruke\u2019 (u kojoj dominira tr\u017ei\u0161te) i ekonomije \u2018vidljive ruke\u2019 (u kojoj dominira dr\u017eava), BiH ima ekonomiju \u2018i\u0161\u010da\u0161ene ruke\u2019. Dr\u017eavi pripada politika indirektnih poreza (PDV, tro\u0161arine i sl.) a entitetima direktnih. Politika direktnih poreza dalje se u FBiH razdjeljuju izme\u0111u FBiH i kantona.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Porezna politikase u BiH svodi na fiskalnu zada\u0107u, tj. namaknu\u0107e prihoda za zakonom utvr\u0111ena prava, dok su ekonomske i socijalne zada\u0107e u drugom planu. Glede bud\u017eetske politike, za nju npr. na razini BiH nema prostora jer Institucije BiH dobivaju prihoda  taman da pokriju rashode.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kod vo\u0111enja fiskalne politike treba vremena da se problem uo\u010di (vrijeme t1) npr. treba vremena da seuo\u010di da treba ne\u0161to mijenjati kod poreza na dohodak i socijalnih doprinosa. Treba potom vremena da se pripremi odnosne zakone (t2), da ih  se provede kroz proceduru (t3) te da zakon po\u010dne ispoljavati rezultate (t4). Vremenski pomaci (t1+t2+t3+t4) iziskuju barem jedan politi\u010dki ciklus. No, tada ili u me\u0111uvremenu se mo\u017ee promijeniti politika i\/ili situacija, pa umjesto \u0161to treba otpu\u0161tati ko\u010dnicu, vlast ju kona\u010dno po\u010dne pritiskivati.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Takvih analiza u BiH nema, pa su i rezultati fiskalne politike mr\u0161avi. Ekonomija je permanentno u stanju unutarnje i vanjske neravnote\u017ee. Unutra\u0161nje, jer je ostvareni dohodak znatno ispod potencijalnog i jer su neaktivnost i nezaposlenost masovni. Vanjske, jer postoje permanentni deficiti teku\u0107eg ra\u010duna i njihov duboko negativan kumulativ tj. duboko negativna neto internacionalna investicijska pozicija.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bh. ekonomija je u najgoroj od \u010detiri zone nezadovoljstva \u2013  proizvodnja je niska i viski su deficiti teku\u0107eg ra\u010duna. Kad ekonomija s currency boardom ima velike vanjskotrgovinske deficite njeno uravnote\u017eivanje se posti\u017ee \u201edevalvacijom kroz depresiju\u201c (Krugman) tj. kroz slabljenje proizvodne aktivnosti i pove\u0107anje nezaposlenosti. Kad se ne mo\u017ee posti\u0107i ravnote\u017ea kroz vanjsku devalvaciju, trebala bi ju, ka\u017ee Keynes,postizatikroz unutarnju (fiskalnu) devalvaciju,  a nje ni na pomolu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Churchill ka\u017ee da dr\u017eava nikome ni\u0161ta ne mo\u017ee dati a daprethodno nije uzela od nekoga. Vlast uzima od gra\u0111ana kroz PDV i akcize i sl. i od radnika kroz socijalne doprinose. Ne\u0107e da uzima od sebe kroz porez na dohodak, imovinu,  koncesijske naknade itd., niti \u017eeli uvesti sna\u017eno progresivno oporezivanje dohodaka. U EU se po tre\u0107ina poreza prikupi od indirektnih i direktnih poreza i od doprinosa. U BiH se od direktnih poreza ne prikupi ni desetina poreznih prihoda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vlast slu\u017ei da puni d\u017eepove gra\u0111ana, a ne da ih prazni. Ne smije se rukovoditi prvenstveno brigom (pa davati jednima uzimaju\u0107i od drugih) nego stvaranjem prilika, pa kad poduzetnici i drugi iskoriste priliku, od pove\u0107anja  njihove imovine dohotka i imovine, ima\u0107e koristi i dr\u017eava od \u0161irenja porezne baze. Kao \u0161to ka\u017ee, Erhard, dr\u017eava ne mo\u017ee nikoga u\u010diniti bogatim, no mo\u017ee siroma\u0161nim (mala korekcija: umjesto dr\u017eava treba pravna dr\u017eava)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Slabe rezultate fiskalne tj. ekonomske politike ne treba vezati za mehanizam koordinacije (sje\u0107a li itko tog mehanizma voodoo politike iz 2015. god.,  postignutog uz doprinos i blagoslov me\u0111unarodne zajednice), nego za karakter fiskalne politike, koja nije inkluzivan  nego ekstraktivan. Koordinacija fiskalne politike tj. koordinacija i\u0161\u010da\u0161ene ruke ne mo\u017ee ni\u0161ta posti\u0107i dok se ruku ne vratiti na njeno mjesto. A \u2018mehanizmi koordinacije\u2019 i sli\u010dne trice i ku\u010dine nisu ni\u0161ta drugo nego odvra\u0107anje ljudi i politi\u010dara od \u017eivotnih problema.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fiskalnu politiku treba usmjeriti na smanjenje procedure i rokove pla\u0107anja poreza, uvo\u0111enje inicijativa koje poti\u010du investiranje u tehnologiju, istra\u017eivanja i razvoj i sl. Ostale politike trebaju olak\u0161ati ulazak i izlazak iz biznisa, olak\u0161avanje ulaska i izlaska robe\/usluge iz zemlje, poduzimanje investicija, na osiguranje lak\u0161eg  i diverzificiranijeg pristupa kapitalu, pobolj\u0161anja efikasnosti dr\u017eavnih tijela (sudova, inspekcija itd.) i smanjenje utaje i evazije poreza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BiH bi se posebice trebala fokusirati na proizvodnju, zaposlenost i pla\u0107anja neobuhva\u0107ene ekonomije (\u2018crne\u2019 i \u2018sive\u2019 ekonomije). Moglo bi ju se smanjiti na srednji rok s \u010detvrtine na petinu BDP .Godi\u0161nje smanjivanje neobuhva\u0107ene ekonomije u veli\u010dini jednog procentni poena BDP donosi  oko  0.9 mlrd KM, koliko iznosi i procijenjeno jednogodi\u0161nje \u2018neubiranje\u2019 PDV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dodu\u0161e, nije problem biti u \u2018sivoj\u2019 ili \u2018crnoj\u2019 kad vlast dopu\u0161ta da \u0161est mlrd KM cirkulira izvan banaka koja ne pokazuje zainteresiranost za uvo\u0111enje fiskalne lutrije tj. pretvaranje gra\u0111ana u dobrovoljne fiskalne inspektore. Prema procjeni EY, limitiranje gotovinskih pla\u0107anja donijelo bi oko 0.9 mlrd\u00a0 KM godi\u0161nje. Dakle, mo\u017ee se i u ekonomiji \u2018i\u0161\u010da\u0161ene ruke\u2019 postizati rezultate. Ako se ne mo\u017ee djelovati na agregatne tra\u017enje mo\u017ee na agregatne ponude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pi\u0161e: Ekonomski stru\u010dnjak Vjekoslav Domljan<\/strong>
Izvor: Dnevni.ba<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nakon pada Berlinskog zida zemlje centralne Europe i Balti\u010dke zemlje uspjele su  tijekom jedne generacije okon\u010dati tranziciju komandnog dru\u0161tva i ekonomije u demokraciju i tr\u017ei\u0161nu ekonomiju. Istodobno su postale \u010dlanice EU i \u010dlanice kluba uglavnom bogatih zemalja tj. OECD-ea. Preostalo je svega nekoliko tranzicijskih ponavlja\u010da, i to u isto\u010dnoj  Europi (Ukrajina, Bjelorusija i Moldova) te […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":41982,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"h5ap_radio_sources":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bihiregija"],"yoast_head":"\nEkonomija "i\u0161\u010da\u0161ene" ruke - RADIO LJUBU\u0160KI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/radioljubuski.ba\/index.php\/2021\/07\/13\/ekonomija-iscasene-ruke\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hr_HR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ekonomija "i\u0161\u010da\u0161ene" ruke - RADIO LJUBU\u0160KI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nakon pada Berlinskog zida zemlje centralne Europe i Balti\u010dke zemlje uspjele su  tijekom jedne generacije okon\u010dati tranziciju komandnog dru\u0161tva i ekonomije u demokraciju i tr\u017ei\u0161nu ekonomiju. 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Istodobno su postale \u010dlanice EU i \u010dlanice kluba uglavnom bogatih zemalja tj. OECD-ea. 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