{"id":78283,"date":"2021-10-19T23:05:58","date_gmt":"2021-10-19T22:05:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radioljubuski.ba\/?p=78283"},"modified":"2021-10-19T23:05:59","modified_gmt":"2021-10-19T22:05:59","slug":"less-o-krizi-u-bih-rusija-i-kina-ce-sigurno-podrzati-srbe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radioljubuski.ba\/index.php\/2021\/10\/19\/less-o-krizi-u-bih-rusija-i-kina-ce-sigurno-podrzati-srbe\/","title":{"rendered":"Less o krizi u BiH: Rusija i Kina \u0107e sigurno podr\u017eati Srbe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Za\u0161to smatra da \u0107e se krize na Kosovu i u BiH povezati? Jesu li disolucija ili rat uop\u0107e opcije? Stav po ovim pitanjima za N1 je iznio Timothy Less, biv\u0161i britanski diplomat i voditelj projekta \u201cStudije dezintegracije\u201d Centra za geopolitiku Univerziteta Cambridge.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Less je prije pet godina objavio \u010dlanak u Foreign Affairsu, gdje je naveo da bi se Republika Srpska mogla pripojiti Srbiji, a dijelovi s hrvatskom ve\u0107inom BiH mogli bi postati dio Hrvatske. Dio Kosova bi se vratio Srbiji, ostatak bi pripao Albaniji. Mnogi su tada to smatrali utopijom. Pitali si ga jesu li posljednji doga\u0111aji u BiH, na Kosovu, ali i izjave Edija Rame, zapravo vode u tom smjeru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDa, mislim da je mogu\u0107e. Za razliku od nedavne pro\u0161losti, mislim da u slu\u010daju BiH postoje sna\u017eni faktori koji djeluju dezintegrativno \u2013 Srbi i Hrvati se osje\u0107aju ugro\u017eeno. U RS osje\u0107aju da se ne po\u0161tuje njihova autonomija, osje\u0107aju da SAD podr\u017eavaju Bo\u0161njake. Ne donosim prosudbe o tome je li njihova percepcija ispravna ali pratim ono \u0161to oni govore, to je tek jedan dio analize. Do nedavno, bili su ograni\u010deni strahom od kazne od SAD. Ta ograni\u010denja se potencijalno vi\u0161e ne\u0107e primjenjivati, nije jasno da \u0107e SAD kazniti RS ako se pripoje Srbiji.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Liderstvo u Srbiji je neodlu\u010dno<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uz konstataciju da iznosi radikalan stav, upitan je i o tome da pojasni na \u010demu temelji tvrdnje da Srbija mo\u017ee pripojiti RS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRadi se o pitanju percipiranih interesa Srbije za RS i generalno za BiH. RS je previ\u0161e slaba da bi bila neovisna. Ako se odvoji od BiH, od vitalnog zna\u010daja za opstanak joj je podr\u0161ka od Srbije. Meni se \u010dini da se liderstvo u Beogradu jo\u0161 nije odlu\u010dilo kakav im je stav po pitanju opstanka BiH. \u010cini mi se da se Vu\u010di\u0107 pla\u0161i posljedica toga \u0161to bi bilo da bude uvu\u010den u sukob u BiH, ali je svjestan da Srbija ne mo\u017ee napustiti bosanske Srbe ako zapadnu u te\u0161ko\u0107e. Bidenova administracija je neprijateljski raspolo\u017eena prema Srbima. Ve\u0107 nekoliko tjedana slu\u0161amo Vulina o \u2018srpskom svetu\u2019, Vu\u010di\u0107 je rekao da \u0107e odgovornost za bosanske Srbe pasti na le\u0111a Srbije \u2013 one sugeriraju na\u010din liderstva u BiH i potencijalne intervencije\u201d, navodi Less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSada smo u situaciji koja ranije nije postojala\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na pitanje kakvu reakciju o\u010dekuje od stranih sila, navodi da vjeruje da ne\u0107e sjediti mirno i gledati, ali da je te\u0161ko predvidjeti njihovu intervenciju.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNe mogu garantirati da \u0107e odlu\u010dno reagirati ako bosanski Srbi odlu\u010de i\u0107i do kraja. Srbi nikad ranije nisu i\u0161li ovako daleko, nikad nismo imali ovakvu situaciju, pa je te\u0161ko biti siguran ho\u0107e li Europljani i SAD ponuditi odlu\u010dne postupke. Rusija i Kina \u0107e sigurno podr\u017eati Srbe. Komentar iz Rusije je da su spremni ponuditi Srbima podr\u0161ku. Dodik smatra i da ima podr\u0161ku Kine kad se radi o investicijskim fondovima ako RS izgubi podr\u0161ku EU\u201d, navodi Less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U nastavku navodi svoju konstataciju da su \u201cneke zemlje u EU dosta pozitivno raspolo\u017eene kada su Srbi u pitanju.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNeke od njih doprinose i radu EU, a neke od njih podr\u017eavaju i raspad BiH. To je nemogu\u0107e potvrditi, ali postoje neki dokazi poput non-papera. Ipak, mislim da ne postoji EU dr\u017eava koja bi pozdravila dezintegraciju BIH. Instinkt SAD-a je braniti svoju politi\u010dku investiciju u BiH, ali ako budu morali uvesti sankcije Srbima, to \u0107e \u010diniti bez podr\u0161ke EU i kontra Rusiji i Kini\u201d, naveo je Less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sada smo u situaciji kakva ranije nikad nije postojala, ponovio je.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOdvajanje RS je Dodikov dugoro\u010dni cilj\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Less je upitan i o razlozima \u0161utnje Aleksandra Vu\u010di\u0107a u ovom slu\u010daju, ali i o Dodikovim razlozima zbog kojih aktualizira ova pitanja u posljednje vrijeme \u2013 samo zbog nadolaze\u0107ih izbora ili jo\u0161 ne\u010dega ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNe mislim da \u0107e Dodik izazivati rizi\u010dne i opasne konflikte s me\u0111unarodnom zajednicom da bi dobio naredne izbore, s njegovog stanovi\u0161ta, odvajanje RS od BiH je njegov dugoro\u010dan cilj. Ja njegove ciljeve gledam kao strate\u0161ke, a ne takti\u010dna pitanja\u201d, komentira Less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0160to se ti\u010de Vu\u010di\u0107a \u2013 njegova trenutna pasivnost proizilazi iz neodlu\u010dnosti, naglasio je ponovo svoj stav.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cKrize na Kosovu i u BiH su povezane\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na pitanje kako povezuje krize na Kosovu i u BiH, Less navodi svoj stav da su ove dvije krize povezane na dva na\u010dina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTo su dva teatra gdje se odvija ista drama \u2013 to je rje\u0161avanje nerije\u0161enog nacionalnog pitanja Srba. Druga poveznica je da obje dose\u017eu klimaks u isto vrijeme, \u0161to mo\u017eda nije slu\u010dajno. Mogu\u0107e je da Dodik prati doga\u0111anja na Kosovu i to prepoznaje kao priliku. Te\u0161ko je predvidjeti \u0161to \u0107e se desiti jer ima puno \u010dimbenika koji utje\u010du na tu situaciju. Dodik se mo\u017eda nada da \u0107e ovo dovesti do ishoda gdje \u0107e vanjske sile rije\u0161iti dva najve\u0107a problema zamjenom teritorija izme\u0111u RS i Kosova\u201d, naveo je Less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Upitan mo\u017ee li prekrajanje granica na Balkanu pro\u0107i bez sukoba, navodi da su mogu\u0107i argumenti koji idu u oba pravca.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAko se bosanski Srbi odlu\u010de odvojiti, konflikt je malo vjerojatan. .. istovremeno, opstanak BiH kao integralne dr\u017eave je egzistencijalno pitanje za Bo\u0161njake i postoje osjetljive ta\u010dke \u0161irom BiH, postoji rizik da izbije nasilje. Sumnjam da \u0107e to biti blizu onoga \u0161to se dogodilo 90-ih jer su se ljudi razdvojili, ali ne mogu isklju\u010diti nasilje u nekoj mjeri\u201d, rekao je.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\/HMS\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Za\u0161to smatra da \u0107e se krize na Kosovu i u BiH povezati? Jesu li disolucija ili rat uop\u0107e opcije? Stav po ovim pitanjima za N1 je iznio Timothy Less, biv\u0161i britanski diplomat i voditelj projekta \u201cStudije dezintegracije\u201d Centra za geopolitiku Univerziteta Cambridge. Less je prije pet godina objavio \u010dlanak u Foreign Affairsu, gdje je naveo […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":76742,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bihiregija"],"yoast_head":"\nLess o krizi u BiH: Rusija i Kina \u0107e sigurno podr\u017eati Srbe - RADIO LJUBU\u0160KI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/radioljubuski.ba\/index.php\/2021\/10\/19\/less-o-krizi-u-bih-rusija-i-kina-ce-sigurno-podrzati-srbe\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hr_HR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Less o krizi u BiH: Rusija i Kina \u0107e sigurno podr\u017eati Srbe - RADIO LJUBU\u0160KI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Za\u0161to smatra da \u0107e se krize na Kosovu i u BiH povezati? Jesu li disolucija ili rat uop\u0107e opcije? Stav po ovim pitanjima za N1 je iznio Timothy Less, biv\u0161i britanski diplomat i voditelj projekta \u201cStudije dezintegracije\u201d Centra za geopolitiku Univerziteta Cambridge. 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