{"id":87101,"date":"2021-11-10T12:29:03","date_gmt":"2021-11-10T11:29:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radioljubuski.ba\/?p=87101"},"modified":"2021-11-10T12:29:05","modified_gmt":"2021-11-10T11:29:05","slug":"moguci-ograniceni-sukobi-oko-brckog-mostara-i-sarajeva-cilj-zapada-ocuvati-bih-do-izbora","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radioljubuski.ba\/index.php\/2021\/11\/10\/moguci-ograniceni-sukobi-oko-brckog-mostara-i-sarajeva-cilj-zapada-ocuvati-bih-do-izbora\/","title":{"rendered":"Mogu\u0107i ograni\u010deni sukobi oko Br\u010dkog, Mostara i Sarajeva; cilj Zapada o\u010duvati BiH do izbora"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Me\u0111unarodna krizna skupina (ICG) objavila je zabrinjavaju\u0107u analizu stanja u BiH u kojoj stoji kako ograni\u010deni ratni sukob uop\u0107e nije nezamisliv ali i kako ipak postoji izlaz iz aktualne krize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U analizi stoji kako se BiH danas suo\u010dava s dvostrukom krizom. Kao problemati\u010dniju od dvije krize, analiti\u010dari ICG-a navode te\u017enje Republike Srpske za ve\u0107om autonomijom ili samostalno\u0161\u0107u. Druga je pak kriza izazvana rupama u izbornom zakonu koje omogu\u0107avaju bo\u0161nja\u010dkom bira\u010dko tijelu da bira hrvatske politi\u010dke predstavnike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Ulozi su visoki jer Hrvati i Srbi prijete da \u0107e bojkotirati izbore 2022. godine ako ne do\u0111e do reformi. Takav bojkot bi de facto zna\u010dio kraj dr\u017eave BiH, kako je to upozorio biv\u0161i visoki predstavnik Wolfgang Petrich”, stoji u analizi ICG-a<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Navodi se i kako bez sna\u017enih napora da obuzda srpski separatizam i da ne do\u0111e do izbornog bojkota Hrvata, BiH izgleda spremnom za politi\u010dki raspad kroz sljede\u0107ih 18 mjeseci. To bi dovelo do osamostaljivanja RS-a, iako malo koja dr\u017eava priznala dr\u017eavnost tog entiteta, dok bi FBiH bila paralizirana hrvatsko-bo\u0161nja\u010dkim sukobom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Oru\u017eani sukob, iako manjih razmjera u odnosu na rat 1992.-1995., vi\u0161e nije nezamisliv. Borbe bi lako mogle izbiti ukoliko bi RS ustrajala u svojim namjerama za secesijom. Ukoliko bi, primjerice, policija RS poku\u0161ala preuzeti kontrolu nad grani\u010dnim prijelazima, mogli bi se sukobiti s dr\u017eavnim policijskim agencijama. Tako\u0111er, federalna policija bi mogla odbiti da tolerira prisustvo policije RS na brdima iznad Sarajeva a do sukoba bi moglo do\u0107i i u Br\u010dkom koje povezuje dva dijela RS-a. Jo\u0161 jedna to\u010dka koja ima potencijal izbijanja sukoba je Mostar, gdje bi napetosti izme\u0111u Hrvata i Bo\u0161njaka mogle eskalirati”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U analizi se poja\u0161njava kako je nametanje zakona o zabrani negiranja genocida potaknula novi val srpskih separatisti\u010dkih zahtjeva, odnosno vra\u0107anja nadle\u017enosti s razine dr\u017eave na razinu entiteta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Navodi se i kako u RS-u postoji konsenzus protiv svih aktivnosti visokog predstavnika, a procjenjuje se i kako ve\u0107ina bh. Srba \u017eeli nezavisnost RS-a, sli za nju nisu spremni ratovati.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U dijelu analize koji govori o hrvatsko-bo\u0161nja\u010dkim odnosima, navodi se kako Izborni zakon BiH treba reformu i kako Hrvati tra\u017ee vlastitu izbornu jedinicu kako im bo\u0161nja\u010dka ve\u0107ina ne bi mogla nametati politi\u010dke predstavnike. Za Bo\u0161njake to pak zna\u010di jo\u0161 vi\u0161e separatizma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Takav odnos pak ide na ruku Dodiku. Frustrirani nedostatkom izbornih reformi, najja\u010da hrvatska stranka je u\u0161la u takti\u010dki savez s Dodikom dijele\u0107i njegovu zabrinutost oko niza tema. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Navodi se i kako BiH nije u fokusu interesa velikih sila. Kad je rije\u010d o EU, samo Hrvatska bez dvojbe \u017eeli vidjeti BiH u EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Istovremeno, Dodik tvrdi kako ima podr\u0161ku Moskve za osamostaljenje RS-a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICG rje\u0161enje vidi u tomu da se Hvati i Bo\u0161njaci ujedine kao protivnici Dodikovoj politici secesionizma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Cilj u BiH za Ameriku i EU treba biti o\u010duvanje cjelovitosti dr\u017eave do izbora 2022. godine. (…) Izborna reforma tra\u017ei privremeno primirje izme\u0111u Hrvata i Bo\u0161njaka. Brzi kompromis mogao bi se temeljiti i na ‘d\u017eentlmenskom dogovoru’ da Bo\u0161njaci jednostavno ne name\u0107u politi\u010dke predstavnike Hrvatima uz obvezu da se cjelovita reforma provede nakon izbora. U zamjenu za to, HDZ bi trebao odustati od bojkota izbora i boriti se protiv srpskog separatizma.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Preporu\u010duje se pak Americi i EU da poku\u0161aju prona\u0107i kompromis s Dodikom koji bi mogao odustati od svojih te\u017enji u zamjenu za bolji status RS-a unutar BiH. Srbe bi se moglo vratiti u institucije BiH suspendiranjem Inzkovog zakona o negiranju genocida za \u0161to ve\u0107 postoji i presedan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U zamjenu za odustajanje od secesije, srpskim liderima, smatra ICG, Zapad bi mogao ponuditi ustavnu reformu nakon izbora sljede\u0107e godine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Autori analize su Marko Prelec i Ashush Pradhan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Izvor: Dnevnik.ba<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Me\u0111unarodna krizna skupina (ICG) objavila je zabrinjavaju\u0107u analizu stanja u BiH u kojoj stoji kako ograni\u010deni ratni sukob uop\u0107e nije nezamisliv ali i kako ipak postoji izlaz iz aktualne krize. U analizi stoji kako se BiH danas suo\u010dava s dvostrukom krizom. Kao problemati\u010dniju od dvije krize, analiti\u010dari ICG-a navode te\u017enje Republike Srpske za ve\u0107om autonomijom […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":83125,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"h5ap_radio_sources":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-87101","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bihiregija"],"yoast_head":"\nMogu\u0107i ograni\u010deni sukobi oko Br\u010dkog, Mostara i Sarajeva; cilj Zapada o\u010duvati BiH do izbora - RADIO LJUBU\u0160KI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/radioljubuski.ba\/index.php\/2021\/11\/10\/moguci-ograniceni-sukobi-oko-brckog-mostara-i-sarajeva-cilj-zapada-ocuvati-bih-do-izbora\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hr_HR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mogu\u0107i ograni\u010deni sukobi oko Br\u010dkog, Mostara i Sarajeva; cilj Zapada o\u010duvati BiH do izbora - RADIO LJUBU\u0160KI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Me\u0111unarodna krizna skupina (ICG) objavila je zabrinjavaju\u0107u analizu stanja u BiH u kojoj stoji kako ograni\u010deni ratni sukob uop\u0107e nije nezamisliv ali i kako ipak postoji izlaz iz aktualne krize. 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