{"id":94983,"date":"2021-12-02T00:10:36","date_gmt":"2021-12-01T23:10:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radioljubuski.ba\/?p=94983"},"modified":"2021-12-02T00:10:38","modified_gmt":"2021-12-01T23:10:38","slug":"da-njemacka-ostaje-bez-ljudi-kao-sto-je-to-slucaj-u-bih-bundestag-bi-vjecito-zasjedao","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radioljubuski.ba\/index.php\/2021\/12\/02\/da-njemacka-ostaje-bez-ljudi-kao-sto-je-to-slucaj-u-bih-bundestag-bi-vjecito-zasjedao\/","title":{"rendered":"“Da Njema\u010dka ostaje bez ljudi kao \u0161to je to slu\u010daj u BiH, Bundestag bi vje\u010dito zasjedao”"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Demografi godinama upozoravaju da BiH nestaje, ekonomski analiti\u010dari brojkama obja\u0161njavaju \u0161to se doga\u0111a, novinari ispisuju tisu\u0107e i tisu\u0107e novinskih stranica da skrenu pozornost na demografski slom zemlje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brojne teme govore o iseljavanju iz ove zemlje, o mladima koji posao pronalaze u inozemstvu, o stanovni\u0161tvu koje rapidno stari i umire. Me\u0111utim, iako se kraj pandemije jo\u0161 ne nazire, \u010dini se da \u0107emo ga ranije do\u010dekati nego kraj valova odlazaka koji zapljuskuju ovu zemlju, a ogledaju se kroz iseljavanje ili trajno preseljenje negdje tamo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jedan od najpopularnijih profesora u BiH Vedran Zubi\u0107, s kojim smo razgovarali, ovu situaciju u kojoj se BiH nalazi pojednostavljeno naziva “demografska katastrofa”. Za Ve\u010dernji list prokomentirao je i o \u010demu je konkretno rije\u010d. Uz tradicionalno lo\u0161e stanje demografskih “brojki” i “bijele kuge”, koja traje ve\u0107 dulje od desetlje\u0107a, poseban problem i katastrofu prouzro\u010dila je pandemija.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prema podacima, u posljednjih godinu dana (listopad 2020. – rujan 2021.) u Federaciji BiH ro\u0111eno je 16.279 beba, a umrlo \u010dak 29.745 osoba. Ako se kao baza uzmu procjene podataka broja stanovnika u Federaciji BiH, onda je natalitet na 0,8 posto, a mortalitet na 1,4 posto. Prirast je negativan i iznosi -13.446. Primjera radi, prema procjeni ukupnog broja stanovnika u Federaciji BiH, Rama je imala 13.414 stanovnika. Ako se napravi usporedba nestanka \u010ditave FBiH, prema Zubi\u0107evim rije\u010dima, to bi bilo u rangu \u010dinjenice da Njema\u010dka prirodnom dinamikom izgubi vi\u0161e od pola milijuna ljudi za godinu dana, pi\u0161e Ve\u010dernji list BiH<\/a>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lo\u0161 po\u010detak godine<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Vjerojatno bi Bundestag zbog toga bio u vje\u010ditom zasjedanju – slikovito obja\u0161njava prof. Zubi\u0107. Posebnu pozornost stavlja na pojedine mjesece. – Najni\u017ei natalitet je u sije\u010dnju (898) i velja\u010di (1230) ove godine. Ako se pomjerite devet mjeseci unatrag, to je razdoblje po\u010detka pandemije. Vjerojatno su se ljudi slabije odlu\u010divali za potomstvo u razdoblju potpunog straha od nadolaze\u0107e po\u0161asti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taj po\u010detak godine je bio, s gledi\u0161ta nataliteta, jako lo\u0161! Ali mortalitet je posebna pri\u010da. On je zna\u010dajno pove\u0107an i smrtnost je ve\u0107a za 20 posto od one na koju smo naviknuli i koja je prosjek. U Sarajevskoj \u017eupaniji je, npr., s 4200 sko\u010dila na 5150 u apsolutnim brojkama! To su dovoljne \u010dinjenice da razumijemo razorno djelovanje u razdoblju pandemije – upozorava profesor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Najgori mjeseci su bili u razdoblju jeseni 2020.: listopad – 2198, studeni – 3221 i prosinac – 3430 te prolje\u0107a 2021.: o\u017eujak – 2952, travanj – 3891 i svibanj – 2524.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Da bismo imali bolju sliku, na\u0161 prosje\u010dni mjese\u010dni mortalitet varira izme\u0111u 1600 i 1700. Ovo su bila razdoblja dvaju velikih valova. Mortalitet je rastao u pojedinim mjesecima vi\u0161e nego dvostruko od onog normalnog i o\u010dekivanog. Ina\u010de, i rujan 2021. ima povi\u0161en mortalitet koji iznosi 2187 i jasno pokazuje lo\u0161e djelovanje vala pandemije. Ne u onoj mjeri kao ranije, ali jo\u0161 uvijek korona predstavlja zna\u010dajan problem zdravlju ljudi! Ovo su numeri\u010dke \u010dinjenice. Sve ostalo je nebitno – ustvrdio je Zubi\u0107 i naglasio: – Slu\u0161ajte znanost i \u010duvajte ljude! Kada su odlasci u pitanju, Zubi\u0107 nagla\u0161ava da mladi, realno, odlaze “trbuhom za kruhom”. Numeri\u010dke \u010dinjenice – Mladi nara\u0161taji su brzi i mnogo bolje informirani. Nemaju namjeru “tro\u0161iti” svoje vrijeme dok traje pri\u010da “mi smo u tranziciji”. U<\/p>\n\n\n\n

kapitalizmu globalizacije ljudi idu za boljim ekonomskim i \u017eivotnim uvjetima – kazao je. Ostaviti ih se mo\u017ee samo ekonomijom – stava je. – Ako mladi ne vide svoju ekonomsku budu\u0107nost, ako im za paket pelena trebaju dvije dnevnice, ako pla\u0107u treba dati za vrti\u0107, ako je pla\u0107a (ako radi) upola manja nego potro\u0161a\u010dka ko\u0161arica, te\u0161ko je zadr\u017eati te ljude. Treba napraviti kombinaciju nove demografske, fiskalne i ekonomske politike. Pitanje je kada \u0107e to do\u0107i… – ka\u017ee Zubi\u0107.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brojke su takve kakve jesu, me\u0111utim, problem ove zemlje je \u0161to su godinama te brojke dramati\u010dne i da se vratimo na po\u010detak teksta, puno je stranica ispisano o demografskom slomu u cilju da se neke stvari po\u010dnu mijenjati nabolje. Na\u017ealost, i ove profesorove rije\u010di mogle bi ostati mrtvo slovo na papiru jer BiH nao\u010digled upada u sve dublju krizu te nema naznaka stabilizaciji. A do\u0161li smo i do kraja godine koja \u0107e, po svemu sude\u0107i, biti najgora poslijeratna jer je pandemija potpomogla ve\u0107u smrtnost, a, na\u017ealost, i potaknula iseljavanje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Izvor:Vecernji.ba<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Demografi godinama upozoravaju da BiH nestaje, ekonomski analiti\u010dari brojkama obja\u0161njavaju \u0161to se doga\u0111a, novinari ispisuju tisu\u0107e i tisu\u0107e novinskih stranica da skrenu pozornost na demografski slom zemlje. Brojne teme govore o iseljavanju iz ove zemlje, o mladima koji posao pronalaze u inozemstvu, o stanovni\u0161tvu koje rapidno stari i umire. Me\u0111utim, iako se kraj pandemije jo\u0161 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":39361,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-94983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bihiregija"],"yoast_head":"\n"Da Njema\u010dka ostaje bez ljudi kao \u0161to je to slu\u010daj u BiH, Bundestag bi vje\u010dito zasjedao" - RADIO LJUBU\u0160KI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/radioljubuski.ba\/index.php\/2021\/12\/02\/da-njemacka-ostaje-bez-ljudi-kao-sto-je-to-slucaj-u-bih-bundestag-bi-vjecito-zasjedao\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hr_HR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\""Da Njema\u010dka ostaje bez ljudi kao \u0161to je to slu\u010daj u BiH, Bundestag bi vje\u010dito zasjedao" - RADIO LJUBU\u0160KI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Demografi godinama upozoravaju da BiH nestaje, ekonomski analiti\u010dari brojkama obja\u0161njavaju \u0161to se doga\u0111a, novinari ispisuju tisu\u0107e i tisu\u0107e novinskih stranica da skrenu pozornost na demografski slom zemlje. 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